$10,800,000Assumptions!B12 acquisition plus a $2,900,000Assumptions!B20 conversion program — total capitalization of $14,660,600Debt Sizing!B8, funded with a $9,529,390Debt Sizing!B20 Bluebonnet Commercial Bank bridge facility (65% LTCAssumptions!B42) and $5,131,210Loan Summary!B25 of sponsor equity; authority to waive the diligence contingency at 5:00 p.m. CT on July 30, 2026PSA §1.5 and close on August 14, 2026PSA §1.3.
Meridian Peak Partners LLC (the “Sponsor”) has an executed purchase and sale agreement, dated June 30, 2026PSA §1.6, to acquire the Harborline Building — a vacant 84,000-SFAssumptions!B4, 1988Assumptions!B6-built tilt-wall warehouse with 21-footAssumptions!B7 clear height on 4.60 acresAssumptions!B5 in southeast Austin — for $10,800,000Assumptions!B12, or $128.57/SFLoan Summary!D29. The business plan converts the building through a 7-monthAssumptions!B21 program into 77 small-bay commercial storage units (66,300 NRSF) and nine office/flex suites (8,700 SF)OM · Unit Mix at a budgeted cost of $2,900,000Assumptions!B20. With closing costs of $960,600Assumptions!B17, total capitalization is $14,660,600Debt Sizing!B8, or $174.53/SFLoan Summary!D32. Committee approval is requested before the due-diligence period expires at 5:00 p.m. CT on July 30, 2026PSA §1.5, after which the full $1,000,000 deposit becomes non-refundablePSA §1.4.
Basis. The contract price is 90% of the $12,000,000Debt Sizing!B11 as-is appraisal of the vacant building, and the all-in basis of $174.53/SF sits below the $241.00Comps!E21–$260.00Comps!E22/SF range paid for stabilized small-bay assets in the Austin sale-comp set. On the underwritten stabilized value the project creates 37.2%Loan Summary!B39 of value over its total basis.
Underwriting discipline. This memorandum is generated from the Sponsor's underwriting workbook, not from the seller's marketing book. The model rebuilds revenue from the bottom up — its FY2 small-bay rent line of $1,995,000CF - Base!C7 equates to $30.09/NRSF, roughly 7% below the $32.38/SF scheduled in the offering memorandumOM · Revenue Assumptions — and then applies a further 9.0%Assumptions!B24 underwriting haircut to sponsor effective gross income, with revenue and expenses grown at 3.0%Assumptions!B25 per year. On that basis the plan stabilizes in FY3 at $1,357,839CF - Base!D31 of net operating income (a 63.2%CF - Base!D32 NOI margin), versus the approximately $1,292,900OM · Investment Summary the seller markets on an un-haircut basis by Year 2.
Financing. Bluebonnet Commercial Bank has term-sheeted a $9,529,390Debt Sizing!B20 bridge facility at 65% of total costAssumptions!B42 — $6,480,000Debt Sizing!B15 funded at close (60%Assumptions!B43 of purchase) and $3,049,390Debt Sizing!B16 of future funding for capex and carry — priced at 1M Term SOFR + 3.75%SOFR!B5 with a rate cap purchased at close, for an initial term of 12 months plus two 6-month extensions. At the forward-curve all-in rate of 7.73%SOFR!E43, stabilized FY3 coverage is 1.84xCF - Base!D36 interest-only and stabilized LTV is 47.4%Debt Sizing!B22.
Returns and downside. Stabilized yield on cost is 9.26%CF - Base!D31 ÷ Debt Sizing!B8 against a 6.75%Assumptions!B36 underwritten exit capitalization rate, producing a stabilized value of $20,116,127CF - Base!B43 — profit at exit of $5,455,527CF - Base!B43 − Debt Sizing!B8 and 1.37xCF - Base!B43 ÷ Debt Sizing!B8 coverage of total cost. The workbook does not carry a levered IRR or equity-multiple computation, so returns are presented on the measures the model actually produces. If the conversion fails outright, the bear-case industrial re-lease value of $12,406,625CF - Bear!B26 still covers the loan 1.30xCF - Bear!B26 ÷ Debt Sizing!B20. The Committee is asked to approve with conditions (Section 10).
| Role | Party | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Buyer / Sponsor | Meridian Peak Partners, LLC, a Texas limited liability company — Marcus T. Aldrin, Manager | PSA preamble |
| Seller | Sablewood Realty Partners, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership — Elena R. Sable, President of Sablewood GP, LLC | PSA preamble; Art. 5 |
| Bridge lender | Bluebonnet Commercial Bank — $9,529,390Debt Sizing!B20 facility per executed term sheet; loan documents in negotiation | Term sheet; Loan Agt. draft |
| Developer | Corvana Development Group, LLC — Renata C. Voss, Managing Member (development services agreement under separate legal review) | DSA; Owner Review |
| General contractor | Corvana Build LLC (Developer affiliate) — GMP contract a condition of approval (Section 10) | DSA §3.4 |
| Escrow agent / title | Travis Peak Title, LLC, as agent for Ironclad National Title Insurance Company | PSA §1.7 |
| Marketing agent (OM) | Meridian Capital Advisors — investment sales & debt advisory (seller's offering process) | OM cover |
| Seller's broker of record | Krail & Vance Commercial, LLC — commission paid by Seller | PSA §13.1 |
| Term | Provision |
|---|---|
| Purchase price | $10,800,000PSA §2.2, payable in immediately available funds at closing; deposit applied at closing |
| Deposit | $500,000 initial (wired July 2, 2026)PSA §2.3(a) + $500,000 additional due within one business day after diligence expiry (July 31, 2026)PSA §2.3(b) = $1,000,000 total, non-refundable thereafterPSA §1.4 |
| Due diligence | 30-day period from the June 30, 2026 Effective Date, expiring 5:00 p.m. CT July 30, 2026; unilateral termination right with deposit refund through expiryPSA §1.5, §3.1 |
| Financing contingency | None — Buyer's obligations are not conditioned on debt; equity must stand behind the full pricePSA Art. 6 |
| Condition of sale | AS-IS, WHERE-IS with limited seller representations; special warranty deedPSA Art. 6; Ex. C |
| Title policy | Owner's policy commitment from the Title Company is a closing conditionPSA §4.6 |
| Occupancy at close | Main warehouse (≈62,550 SF) delivered vacant and lease-free; three ancillary leases totaling 21,450 RSF (retail pad and office annex) assigned at closingPSA Ex. B |
| Milestone | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| PSA executed (Effective Date) | June 30, 2026PSA §1.6 | Complete |
| Initial deposit funded ($500,000) | July 2, 2026PSA §2.3(a) | Complete |
| This memorandum / Investment Committee meeting | July 22 / July 24, 2026 | In process |
| Due-diligence expiry — deposit goes hard | July 30, 2026, 5:00 p.m. CTPSA §1.5 | Pending Investment Committee |
| Additional deposit ($500,000) | July 31, 2026PSA §2.3(b) | Pending Investment Committee |
| Loan closing & acquisition closing | August 14, 2026PSA §1.3 | Scheduled |
| Outside date (one 10-day permitted extension) | August 24, 2026PSA §9.2 | — |
| Conversion start (permits in review since June 2026) | Sept.–Nov. 2026OM · Timeline | Plan |
| Substantial completion (7-month programAssumptions!B21) | Spring 2027 | Plan |
Diligence flag: the underwriting carries the site at 4.60 acresAssumptions!B5 while the OM markets 5.50 fenced acres; the survey ordered under the PSA must reconcile the legal description before the deposit goes hard (Section 10, condition 3).
| Source | Amount | % of Total | $ / SF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bluebonnet bridge loan (initial + future funding)Debt Sizing!B20 | $9,529,390 | 65.0%Debt Sizing!B21 | $113.45Debt Sizing!B17 |
| Sponsor equity — Meridian Peak Partners LLCLoan Summary!B25 | $5,131,210 | 35.0%Loan Summary!C25 | $61.09Loan Summary!D25 |
| Total sourcesLoan Summary!B26 | $14,660,600 | 100.0% | $174.53 |
| Use | Amount | % of Total | $ / SF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purchase priceAssumptions!B12 | $10,800,000 | 73.7% | $128.57Loan Summary!D29 |
| Closing costsAssumptions!B17 | $960,600 | 6.6% | $11.44 |
| Title, escrow & transfer (0.7% of price)Assumptions!B13 | $75,600 | 0.5% | $0.90 |
| Legal, diligence & third-party reportsAssumptions!B14 | $260,000 | 1.8% | $3.10 |
| Financing fees & interest-rate capAssumptions!B15 | $480,000 | 3.3% | $5.71 |
| Development & CM fees at close (5% of capex)Assumptions!B16 | $145,000 | 1.0% | $1.73 |
| Conversion capexAssumptions!B20 | $2,900,000 | 19.8% | $34.52 |
| Hard costs — conversionAssumptions!B18 | $2,610,000 | 17.8% | $31.07 |
| Soft costs & contingencyAssumptions!B19 | $290,000 | 2.0% | $3.45 |
| Total uses — total project costDebt Sizing!B8 | $14,660,600 | 100.0% | $174.53Loan Summary!D32 |
Component percentages are shown at one decimal and may not foot to subtotals due to rounding; dollar amounts foot exactly ($10,800,000 + $960,600 + $2,900,000 = $14,660,600; $9,529,390 + $5,131,210 = $14,660,600).
The bridge facility funds $6,480,000Debt Sizing!B15 at closing — capped at 60%Assumptions!B43 of the purchase price — with the remaining $3,049,390Debt Sizing!B16 drawn as future funding against conversion capex and carry during the 7-monthAssumptions!B21 program. Sponsor equity of $5,131,210Loan Summary!B25 funds the balance of the purchase price and closing costs at the closing table, so the equity is fully invested before material future-funding draws begin.
In addition to the capitalization above, $650,000Reserves!B7 of reserves — a $500,000Assumptions!B55 interest reserve and a $150,000Assumptions!B56 operating-shortfall reserve — are escrowed with the lender at close, funded from sponsor equity and excluded from the LTC cost basis per the workbook's reserve convention. Reserve adequacy is tested in Section 7.
The plan demises the vacant warehouse into 77 drive-up small-bay commercial storage units totaling 66,300 NRSF (average unit 861 SF) and builds out 8,700 SF of the north storefront elevation into nine office/flex suitesOM · Unit Mix, within the building's 84,000 SFAssumptions!B4 gross leasable area. Scope is non-structural: interior demising, fourteen new grade-level doors (post-conversion loading of 14 grade-level / 2 dock-highAssumptions!B8), selective climate control, LED lighting, and site security. Hard costs are budgeted at $2,610,000Assumptions!B18 with $290,000Assumptions!B19 of soft costs and contingency — $34.52/SF all-in on GLA.
Construction runs 7 monthsAssumptions!B21 from permit issuance; permits have been in review since June 2026 and the OM's construction timeline shows mobilization in late 2026 with substantial completion and first move-ins in spring 2027OM · Timeline. The underwriting's FY1 (twelve months ending 8/31/27CF - Base!B4) therefore blends the construction period and early lease-up at a 50%Scenario Assumptions!B11 average economic occupancy.
| Ramp (base case) | FY1 | FY2 | FY3 | FY4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average economic occupancyScenario Assumptions!B11:E11 | 50% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
The plan reaches its 90%Assumptions!B31 stabilized occupancy by FY2 and holds it thereafter. That target is set at the middle of the observed competitive set: the five surveyed Austin small-bay facilities run 86%Operating Comps!C9 to 95%Operating Comps!C7 occupied — a 90.2%Operating Comps!C5:C9 simple average — against a submarket industrial vacancy of 4.8%Assumptions!B29.
The model's small-bay rent line opens at $1,900,000CF - Base!B7 in FY1 and $1,995,000CF - Base!C7 in FY2 — $30.09/NRSF on the 66,300-SF unit pool, versus the OM's scheduled $32.38/SF blended rateOM · Revenue Assumptions. Achieved small-bay lease comps in the Austin set average $28.11Comps!D14/SF/yr SF-weighted across 57,100 SFComps!C14 of executed deals (range $25.50Comps!D9–$33.00Comps!D10), and the comp units are materially larger than Harborline's 861-SF average bay — smaller bays clear higher per-SF rents. The Sponsor's own portfolio has achieved $21.10Operating Comps!C16–$28.75Operating Comps!C15/SF in secondary Texas markets, supporting the Austin premium without relying on it: the 9.0%Assumptions!B24 EGI haircut in Section 5 absorbs roughly the gap between the model rent line and the comp average.
The facility will be operated on the Sponsor's existing small-bay platform (six operating assets across San Antonio, Fort Worth, Round Rock, El Paso, Tulsa and WacoOperating Comps rows 13-18) under a management agreement priced in the model at 5% of underwritten EGICF - Base!A22. Underwriting carries dedicated on-site payroll of $118,000CF - Base!B23 in FY1, lease-up marketing of $60,000CF - Base!B25 stepping down to $45,000CF - Base!C25 at stabilization, and ancillary income lines (fees, tenant insurance, truck and equipment rental) totaling $230,000CF - Base!B9 + CF - Base!B10 in FY1. Refinance or sale at stabilization is the exit; both paths are tested in Sections 6 and 8.
All figures below are recomputed line-by-line from the workbook's CF - Base tab (fiscal years ending August 31, 2027CF - Base!B4 onward). FY1 and FY2 revenue and expense lines are hard inputs; later years grow at 3.0%Assumptions!B25. Negative amounts in parentheses.
| Line ($) | FY1 | FY2 | FY3 | FY4 | FY5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average occupancy (ramp)Scenario Assumptions!B11:E11 | 50% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Gross potential revenueCF - Base!B11:F11 | 2,450,000 | 2,562,000 | 2,638,860 | 2,718,026 | 2,799,567 |
| Vacancy & credit lossCF - Base!B12:F12 | (1,225,000) | (256,200) | (263,886) | (271,803) | (279,957) |
| ConcessionsCF - Base!B13:F13 | (45,000) | (25,000) | (13,194) | (13,590) | (13,998) |
| Sponsor EGICF - Base!B14:F14 | 1,180,000 | 2,280,800 | 2,361,780 | 2,432,633 | 2,505,612 |
| UW haircut to EGI (9.0%)CF - Base!B15:F15 | (106,200) | (205,272) | (212,560) | (218,937) | (225,505) |
| Underwritten EGICF - Base!B16:F16 | 1,073,800 | 2,075,528 | 2,149,220 | 2,213,696 | 2,280,107 |
| Total operating expensesCF - Base!B29:F29 | (708,690) | (767,776) | (791,381) | (815,122) | (839,576) |
| Net operating incomeCF - Base!B31:F31 | 365,110 | 1,307,752 | 1,357,839 | 1,398,574 | 1,440,531 |
| NOI margin (of UW EGI)CF - Base!B32:F32 | 34.0% | 63.0% | 63.2% | 63.2% | 63.2% |
| Debt service — interest-onlyCF - Base!B34:F34 | (725,742) | (735,478) | (736,622) | (736,622) | (736,622) |
| DSCR (fully-funded balance)CF - Base!B36:F36 | 0.50x | 1.78x | 1.84x | 1.90x | 1.96x |
| Debt yieldCF - Base!B37:F37 | 3.8% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 14.7% | 15.1% |
The workbook carries three fully-built cash-flow scenarios on identical mechanics — base and bull on the conversion plan, bear on outright plan failure with the building re-let as bulk industrialScenario Assumptions!B6 at the $9.75Assumptions!B28/SF NNN market rent after twelve months of downtime.
| Metric | BASE | BULL | BEAR (industrial re-lease) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue basis vs sponsor plan | 91%Scenario Assumptions!C4 | 100%Scenario Assumptions!C5 | industrial rentScenario Assumptions!C6 |
| Stabilized occupancy | 90%Scenario Assumptions!E11 | 95%Scenario Assumptions!E12 | 93%Scenario Assumptions!E13 |
| Stabilized NOI (FY3) | $1,357,839CF - Base!D31 | $1,685,117CF - Bull!D31 | $775,414CF - Bear!D14 |
| Capitalization rate | 6.75%Assumptions!B36 | 6.50%Assumptions!B38 | 6.25%Assumptions!B32 |
| Stabilized value | $20,116,127CF - Base!B43 | $25,924,870CF - Bull!B43 | $12,406,625CF - Bear!B26 |
| Yield on total cost | 9.26%CF - Base!D31 ÷ Debt Sizing!B8 | 11.49%CF - Bull!D31 ÷ Debt Sizing!B8 | 5.29%CF - Bear!D14 ÷ Debt Sizing!B8 |
| Profit / (loss) vs total cost | $5,455,527CF - Base!B43 − Debt Sizing!B8 | $11,264,270CF - Bull!B43 − Debt Sizing!B8 | ($2,253,975)CF - Bear!B26 − Debt Sizing!B8 |
| FY3 DSCR (interest-only) | 1.84xCF - Base!D36 | 2.29xCF - Bull!D36 | 1.05xCF - Bear!D20 |
| Loan-to-value at scenario value | 47.4%Debt Sizing!B22 | 36.8%Debt Sizing!B20 ÷ CF - Bull!B43 | 76.8%Debt Sizing!B24 |
The bull case runs the sponsor plan without haircut (100%Scenario Assumptions!C5 of sponsor EGI), a faster ramp to 95%Scenario Assumptions!E12 occupancy, and a 6.50%Assumptions!B38 exit — stabilized NOI of $1,685,117CF - Bull!D31 and value of $25,924,870CF - Bull!B43, an 11.49% yield on cost. The Committee should treat this as upside calibration, not underwriting.
The bear case abandons the conversion entirely: twelve months dark, then lease-up to 93%Scenario Assumptions!E13 as bulk industrial at market rent. Even so, FY3 industrial NOI of $775,414CF - Bear!D14 capped at the 6.25%Assumptions!B32 industrial cap rate produces $12,406,625CF - Bear!B26 of value — recovering 84.6%CF - Bear!B26 ÷ Debt Sizing!B8 of total cost, covering the loan 1.30xCF - Bear!B26 ÷ Debt Sizing!B20 (76.8%Debt Sizing!B24 LTV), and carrying debt service at 1.05xCF - Bear!D20 by FY3 against a 1.00xAssumptions!B47 sizing floor. The equity loss in that scenario, ($2,253,975)CF - Bear!B26 − Debt Sizing!B8, is 43.9%(Debt Sizing!B8 − CF - Bear!B26) ÷ Loan Summary!B25 of invested equity — painful but not a wipeout, because the day-one basis is 90%Assumptions!B12 ÷ Debt Sizing!B11 of as-is appraised value.
Bear FY1 NOI is ($8,400)CF - Bear!B14 during downtime — the funded reserves (Section 7) and the completion/carry package in the loan documents are sized with this in view.
| Term | Provision |
|---|---|
| Lender | Bluebonnet Commercial Bank (bridge lending group) |
| Commitment | $9,529,390Debt Sizing!B20 — sized to 65%Assumptions!B42 of total project costDebt Sizing!C14 ($113.45Debt Sizing!B17/SF fully funded) |
| Initial funding at close | $6,480,000Debt Sizing!B15 (60%Assumptions!B43 of purchase price) |
| Future funding | $3,049,390Debt Sizing!B16 for conversion capex and carry, drawn against requisitions |
| Index / spread | 1M Term SOFRSOFR!B4 + 3.75%SOFR!B5, interest-only; interest-rate cap purchased at close (premium within the $480,000Assumptions!B15 financing-cost budget) |
| Forward all-in rates | FY1 7.62%SOFR!C43 · FY2 7.72%SOFR!D43 · FY3+ 7.73%SOFR!E43 (fictional forward strip) |
| Term | 12 months initial plus two 6-month extension options (12 + 6 + 6) |
| Structure | Single-purpose borrower entity wholly owned by Meridian Peak Partners LLC; completion and carry support customary for bridge conversions; reserves per Section 7 escrowed at close |
| Test | Threshold | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DSCR — base FY3 (interest-only, fully funded) | 1.25x minAssumptions!B45 | 1.84xCF - Base!D36 | PASS |
| Debt yield — stabilized (base FY3) | 9.0% minAssumptions!B46 | 14.2%CF - Base!D37 | PASS |
| DSCR — bear FY3 | 1.00x minAssumptions!B47 | 1.05xCF - Bear!D20 | PASS |
| LTV — as-is appraisal ($12,000,000Debt Sizing!B11) | 80% maxAssumptions!B44 | 79.4%Debt Sizing!B23 | PASS |
| Loan-to-cost | 65% maxAssumptions!B42 | 65.0%Debt Sizing!B21 | PASS |
All five sizing tests pass as computed on the workbook's Debt Sizing tab (rows 28–32). The binding constraints are loan-to-cost (at its 65% maximum exactly) and as-is LTV (79.4% against an 80% ceiling) — the loan cannot be upsized without breaching both.
| Covenant | Threshold | Basis of measurement |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum DSCRLoan Agt. §7.1 | 1.25xCov Book · Tests!C21 | Tested quarterly: trailing NOI (annualized quarter pre-stabilization) divided by Annual Debt Service at a stipulated 10.55%Cov Book · Tests!B9 debt-service constant — $1,005,350.65Cov Book · Tests!B10/yr on the full commitment — approximating 25-year amortization; not the interest-only couponLoan Agt. §1.4 |
| Minimum debt yieldLoan Agt. §7.2 | 9.0%Cov Book · Tests!C22 | Trailing twelve-month NOI divided by outstanding principal |
| Minimum liquidityLoan Agt. §7.3 | $750,000Cov Book · Tests!C23 | Borrower + guarantor unrestricted accounts; lender-held reserves excluded |
| Completion covenantLoan Agt. §7.4 | — | Conversion complete by a fixed deadline; failure is an immediate event of default |
| ReportingLoan Agt. §7.5 | 45 / 90 days | Quarterly statements with compliance certificate in 45 days; audited annuals in 90 days |
Model basis (interest-only, forward curve, fully-funded balance): stabilized FY3 DSCR of 1.84xCF - Base!D36 and debt yield of 14.2%CF - Base!D37 ($1,357,839CF - Base!D31 ÷ $9,529,390Debt Sizing!B20).
Covenant basis (stipulated 10.55% constant, trailing NOI): the same stabilized FY3 NOI tests at 1.35xCF - Base!D31 ÷ Cov Book · Tests!B10 against the 1.25x minimum — $101,150CF - Base!D31 − 1.25 × Cov Book · Tests!B10 (7.4%) of annual NOI headroom. During lease-up the trailing-twelve debt-yield test is the tight one: the covenant workbook models the first tested trailing-twelve NOI at $914,821Cov Book · Tests!B13, a 9.60%Cov Book · Tests!D22 debt yield against the 9.0% floor — only 0.60% of headroom until stabilized quarters season into the trailing window. The covenant commencement date must therefore sit after the projected FY2 ramp (condition 1, Section 10).
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Interest reserve escrowed at closeReserves!B5 | $500,000 |
| Operating-shortfall reserve escrowed at closeReserves!B6 | $150,000 |
| Total reserves (funded from sponsor equity)Reserves!B7 | $650,000 |
| FY1 interest, draw-based cross-check (avg balance $8,004,695Reserves!B12 during 7-month construction, then fully funded)Reserves!B17 | $658,007 |
| FY1 carry shortfall — interest less FY1 NOI of $365,110Reserves!B20Reserves!B25 | $292,897 |
| Reserve surplus after FY1 carry — ADEQUATEReserves!B27 | $357,103 |
FY2 cash flow after debt service turns positive at $572,273Reserves!B26, so the funded reserves are only required through the construction-and-lease-up year. The workbook's adequacy flagReserves!B28 reads ADEQUATE with a 55% cushion over the modeled FY1 shortfall.
The underwriting exits at a 6.75%Assumptions!B36 capitalization rate on stabilized FY3 NOI. That is deliberately wide of the market evidence: the three stabilized small-bay sales in the comp set cleared at 6.50%Comps!F20 (8000 Cameron Rd, Mar-26), 6.70%Comps!F21 (12800 Harris Ridge Blvd, Feb-26) and 6.20%Comps!F22 (4500 S Congress Ave, Aug-25), and the full six-sale set — including as-is industrial trades — averages 6.53%Comps!F24. The underwritten exit therefore carries a 22 bps cushion to the blended comp average, and the seller's own marketing implies a materially richer $20.7M at a 6.25% cap on un-haircut NOIOM · Investment Summary.
On dollars per foot the exit is likewise inside the evidence: $239.48CF - Base!B44/SF stabilized value versus $245.00Comps!E20, $241.00Comps!E21 and $260.00Comps!E22/SF paid for the stabilized small-bay comparables.
| Exit cap rate | 6.50%Assumptions!B38 | 6.75%Assumptions!B36 (UW) | 7.00% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stabilized value | $20,889,824CF - Base!D31 ÷ Assumptions!B38 | $20,116,127CF - Base!B43 | $19,397,694CF - Base!D31 ÷ 7.00% |
| Profit vs total cost | $6,229,224 | $5,455,527CF - Base!B43 − Debt Sizing!B8 | $4,737,094 |
| Coverage of total cost | 1.42x | 1.37xCF - Base!B43 ÷ Debt Sizing!B8 | 1.32x |
| Loan-to-value at exit | 45.6% | 47.4%Debt Sizing!B22 | 49.1% |
Sensitivity computed exactly as FY3 NOI divided by the stated cap rate: $1,357,839 ÷ 6.50% = $20,889,824; ÷ 6.75% = $20,116,127; ÷ 7.00% = $19,397,694.
Because stabilized yield on cost is 9.26%CF - Base!D31 ÷ Debt Sizing!B8, the exit cap rate would have to widen roughly 251 bps — to 9.26%, nearly 40% beyond the worst observed comp — before stabilized value fell below the project's $14,660,600Debt Sizing!B8 total cost. Below the conversion outcome entirely sits the industrial floor: $12,406,625CF - Bear!B26 of bear-case value at the 6.25%Assumptions!B32 industrial cap, and a $12,000,000Debt Sizing!B11 as-is appraisal of the vacant building today — 111%Debt Sizing!B11 ÷ Assumptions!B12 of the contract price before a dollar of capex.
| Risk | Mitigant — wired to the model |
|---|---|
| 1 · Lease-up pace. FY1 underwrites only 50%Scenario Assumptions!B11 average occupancy and FY1 NOI of $365,110CF - Base!B31 covers 0.50xCF - Base!B36 of fully-funded interest; a slower ramp extends negative carry. | Funded $500,000Reserves!B5 interest reserve plus $150,000Reserves!B6 operating reserve versus a modeled FY1 shortfall of $292,897Reserves!B25; competitor facilities run 86%Operating Comps!C9–95%Operating Comps!C7 occupied; by FY2 coverage is 1.78xCF - Base!C36. |
| 2 · Construction cost overrun. Hard costs of $2,610,000Assumptions!B18 are an estimate until bought out; the GC is the developer's affiliate (Corvana Build LLC), and the draft DSA lacks market cost protectionsOwner Review. | $290,000Assumptions!B19 soft-cost line includes contingency (11.1%Assumptions!B19 ÷ Assumptions!B18 of hard costs); development/CM fee capped at $145,000Assumptions!B16 (5% of capex); GMP contract with retainage and completion support is condition 2; scope is non-structural demising on a 7-monthAssumptions!B21 schedule. |
| 3 · Tax reassessment. Travis County reassessment at the $10,800,000Assumptions!B12 sale price could push real estate taxes above the $195,000CF - Base!B21 FY1 carry. | Taxes are the largest single expense line and grow 3.0%Assumptions!B25/yr in the model; the 9.0%Assumptions!B24 EGI haircut plus $101,150CF - Base!D31 − 1.25 × Cov Book · Tests!B10 of covenant-basis NOI headroom absorb a material step-up; protest rights preserved at closing. |
| 4 · Interest-rate risk. The facility floats at 1M Term SOFR + 3.75%SOFR!B5; the model's forward strip tops out at a 7.73%SOFR!E43 all-in rate, and a rate shock widens negative carry in FY1. | Interest-rate cap purchased at close — premium budgeted inside the $480,000Assumptions!B15 financing-cost line; stabilized coverage of 1.84xCF - Base!D36 holds above the 1.25xAssumptions!B45 floor even at rates well above the strip; interest reserve sized on the draw-based FY1 interest of $658,007Reserves!B17. |
| 5 · Exit cap widening. Value at a 7.00% cap falls to $19,397,694CF - Base!D31 ÷ 7.00%; a small-bay bid retreat would push the exit toward industrial pricing. | UW exit of 6.75%Assumptions!B36 is already 22 bps wide of the 6.53%Comps!F24 comp average; breakeven-to-cost requires ≈9.26% — far outside the 6.20%Comps!F22–6.70%Comps!F21 stabilized comp range; dual exit (sale or refinance at 47.4%Debt Sizing!B22 LTV) removes forced-sale timing. |
| 6 · Small-bay format demand. The plan depends on granular tenant demand for 77 small bays; if the format under-leases, revenue reverts toward commodity industrial. | Submarket industrial vacancy is 4.8%Assumptions!B29 and the bear case prices exactly this failure: industrial re-lease NOI of $775,414CF - Bear!D14 still covers debt 1.05xCF - Bear!D20 at a 76.8%Debt Sizing!B24 LTV; 57,100 SFComps!C14 of executed small-bay lease comps at $28.11Comps!D14/SF evidence the demand pool; sponsor operates six comparable facilities. |
Ranked in the Committee's customary order of expected severity. Each mitigant cites the specific workbook cell that carries it; none relies on adjustments outside the model.
Underwriting recommends that the Committee approve the transaction with conditions: a below-appraisal entry basis (90%Assumptions!B12 ÷ Debt Sizing!B11 of the $12,000,000Debt Sizing!B11 as-is value), a 9.26%CF - Base!D31 ÷ Debt Sizing!B8 stabilized yield on cost built on haircut revenue, $5,455,527CF - Base!B43 − Debt Sizing!B8 of modeled value creation, and a bear case that still covers the loan 1.30xCF - Bear!B26 ÷ Debt Sizing!B20 justify proceeding; the open items below are executable within the diligence window and none reprices the deal if resolved as conditioned.
For the Investment Committee of Meridian Peak Partners LLC: